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Korean Election May Make or Break Economy

By William Pesek Jr.

Shanghai, Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Kim Dae Jung was dubbed Asia's Nelson Mandela when he rose to the South Korean presidency five years ago. It was an apt comparison for a man who survived assassination attempts, prison and a death sentence to help bring democracy to the nation's 47 million people.

The 77-year-old also did what only a once-in-a-generation leader could: Save his economy from ruin. Yet as voters prepare to pick Kim's successor Thursday, he's looking less like Mandela and more like Mikhail Gorbachev -- a man beloved abroad for his bold reforms and despised by many at home.

That Kim is leaving office amid such rancor is unfortunate, for Koreans would be far worse off without him. When he arrived in 1998, Korea was on the verge of economic collapse. His government recapitalized banks, clamped down on the conglomerates, or chaebol, towering over the economy and let foreigners take bigger stakes in local companies. Growth boomed as a result.

``A key lesson from the recovery is the importance of political leadership,'' the International Monetary Fund said in a its most recent assessment of Korea's economy, lauding Kim for being able to ``unify the country to overcome the crisis.''

This week, Koreans will vote to build on Kim's success or return to the failed policies of the past. If Koreans want to see their economy continue to thrive, Roh Moo Hyun is their man. If they want to go back to a time when a handful of cartels ran things, Lee Hoi Chang is their guy.

Message for Investors

Investors should pay close attention to what Koreans decide. The race is neck-and-neck at the moment and a Lee victory could do much to discourage investment flows into Korea, just as the Asian financial crisis did five years ago.

Roh, 55, is a member of the ruling Millennium Democratic Party and Kim's handpicked successor. He's a staunch supporter of imposing stricter regulations on the shadowy business groups that had much to do with Korea's economic undoing in 1997. The crisis cast daylight on the corruption, bad management and dodgy finances of the chaebol, which benefited from close government ties.

``Unless we reform the chaebol, another economic crisis could occur,'' Roh said last week in a debate against Lee.

Roh also wants to continue cracking down on insider trading, Japan-like cross-shareholding between companies and hidden transactions within industrial groups. He would complete pending sales of Chohung Bank and other state-run companies to foreign investors.

Ties With North

Equally important is Roh's desire to restore ties with North Korea, a policy that won Kim the 2000 Nobel Peace Prize. While shaky and uncertain, the approach still seems the best way to draw Pyongyang out of isolation. While Kim paid the price in terms of popularity for this year's rise in North-South tensions, history will likely validate his ``sunshine policy.''

A vote for Roh, simply put, is a signal there's no turning back for Seoul. It's a green light for Korea to remain a model of financial reform not only in Asia but for all struggling nations. While China's rise is stealing all the headlines these days, the Korean economy's return from near-death five years ago is an impressive feat that shouldn't be imperiled.

A Lee victory could do just that. The 67-year-old, who's running on the Grand National Party ticket, favors easing restrictions on the chaebol. The rationale? These captains of industry were behind Korea's impressive rise in recent decades and should be left alone to conduct business.

Chaebol's Role

No one's downplaying the key roles conglomerates like Daewoo, Hyundai, LG and Samsung had in making Korea a global player. What's dangerous, though, is ignoring their culpability in the problems still plaguing Asia's fourth-biggest economy. Their overexpansion and iron grip over Korean industry hurt consumers and hampered the nation's ability to compete globally.

Lee also favors scrapping Kim's efforts at diplomacy with North Korea. He wants all financial aid suspended until the North dismantles its nuclear weapons program. And here, Lee may hit a nerve with a Korean electorate that's grown more distrustful of Pyongyang. Lee's argument that the North Koreans will benefit more than South Koreans has gained currency.

Trouble is, fears of further isolation are only emboldening the North to take drastic measures to get the world's attention. North Korea's move last week to restart its nuclear power plants was a case in point. Further isolation may drive Pyongyang to try even more radical stunts.

Badly needed overseas investment may bypass Korea if Lee gets his way. He thinks Seoul is selling Korean assets too cheaply to foreigners. That would be a serious blow to investors who want to see Kim's market-opening policies maintained. Lee signaled he may reassess the sale of Chohung Bank. Investors may wonder if he'd do the same with Korea Gas Corp.

The government would suffer, too. It needs to complete asset sales to recoup 157 trillion won ($131 billion) spent saving companies and banks during the Asian crisis. Seoul has collected about a third so far. Slower asset sales might signal to global markets that Korea is backpedaling on reforms.

This week, Korean voters have a chance to stop that from happening. Investors should hope they do.


¼Õº´°ü ±âÀÚ redguard@ohmynews.com



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